Does a majority of Slovaks vote the „lesser evil“?.

Do many people in Slovakia vote for the "lesser evil"? There are heated arguments among commentators. Is this tendency a positive manifestation of rising above party ideology and accepting that politics is the „art of the possible“? Or is it, on the contrary, a negative manifestation that enables a low level of political culture in the country and contributes to the spread of negative emotions, because many people do not vote "for" something, but rather "against" something? What we can say for sure is that most Slovaks vote out of conviction. Only a quarter of Slovaks vote for parties they consider to be the "lesser evil".

We asked respondents the following question at the end of September 2024: "If the general elections were held next weekend, would you take part in it? If so, which party or movement would you vote for?"

We then asked those respondents who could answer who they would vote for whether they would vote for a given party out of conviction, because they trust it, or whether they would choose it as a "lesser evil".

The term "lesser evil" is very common in Slovakia. In surveys, to measure relevant social phenomena, it is necessary to ask questions in a comprehensible way for the target audience. Thus, in Slovak context, a person voting for the 'lesser evil' supports the party that is closest to his views in the election, but not so close that he identifies with it. There are also cases where people support parties that oppose something they consider a major threat. In this case, what the party is fighting against is more important to voters than what it is fighting for.

So, which parties would Slovak voters most often choose as a "lesser evil"?

The strongest political party today is SMER-SD, which also has the largest number of voters by conviction, although SMER is facing several high-profile corruption scandals. Thus, it can be assumed that SMER‘s electorate wants to support this party for reasons other than transparent governance and fiscal responsibility. And it is these reasons that SMER voters personally identify with. The second strongest party is Progresive Slovakia (PS), which has twice as many voters viewing it as the "lesser evil" than SMER. This means that more voters have a problem with something about the PS, do not identify with it, but believe that it stands against something that is more important than what bothers them about it. And this sentiment seems to be growing stronger among PS voters, as almost half of them have seen PS as a „lesser evil“ last year. PS has thus managed to persuade large part of its voters that what they disliked about it is not a problem anymore.

This effect of voters identifying with their party is growing stronger in the last year. The share of voters voting for the „lesser evil“ has fallen from 30.2% in 2023 to 26.6% in 2024. As the political map has not changed - no new political parties have emerged - this indicates that some voters are clarifying their priorities and are less "choosy".

A number of societal factors could influence this change. Political scientists talk about protest votes, voter loyalty or less critical voters.

If the decline in "lesser evil" votes would be due to political parties listening more to citizens and offering content that voters resonate with more, this change would be positive news.

However, in an environment of multiple crises, it may rather be one of the concomitant phenomena of worsening social polarisation and 'entrenchment' of ideological positions, which is a more advanced stage in the cycle of polarisation.

In this context, less „lesser evil“ votes may be part of society simply resigning to nuance and choosing a "side" and adopting it as its own. In an environment of uncertainty and strong society-wide negative emotions, it is a strong stressor to hold a minority view in ones community. It's a natural evolutionary reaction that is well described by social psychology. But it usually reduces the willingness to talk to the other side. Thus, from the point of view of social cohesion, it is a negative trend, even though it is a rational self-defensive mechanism for the individual and his psychological well-being.

We can conclude that the political positions of people in the country are becoming clearer and stronger. And the polarization of Slovak society with them.

Bibliography:

DEKK dataset 2024: Trust and Polarization. Kosnáč, P., Gloss, H., Cigáneková, V. Data file Version 2.0 - Public. Focus Agency for DEKK Institute, Bratislava, September 2024.

DEKK Dataset 2023: Trust and Antisystem. Kosnáč, P., Gloss, H. Data file Version 2.0 - Public. Focus Agency for DEKK Institute, Bratislava, August 2023.

Kosnáč, P., Lane, J., Gloss, H., Cigáneková, V., Shults, L., Kandrík, M. Polarization and Assassination. DEKK Institute in cooperation with CulturePulse, University of Agder and Adapt Institute, May 2024. See: https://www.dekk.institute/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/polarizacia-a-atentat-sk.pdf

Varieties of Democracy Project, V-Dem Institute, Department of Political Science, University of Gothenburg, Sweden. See: https://www.v-dem.net/about/v-dem-project/